Russia’s Urals Oil Soars 15% Amid Israel-Iran Conflict

Report by “Safarti Tarjuman” International News Desk

Moscow — Russia’s Urals crude oil surged nearly 15% in just three days following the eruption of conflict between Israel and Iran, analysts at BCS Bank confirmed Monday. The spike reflects growing fears over regional instability and potential threats to global energy supply routes.

The price of Urals crude reached 5,000 rubles ($65) per barrel on Friday, climbing from 4,400 rubles ($57.20) earlier in the week — its lowest point in two years. However, despite the sharp uptick, prices remain well below government projections for 2025.

Russia’s original 2025 budget anticipated oil prices at 6,700 rubles ($87.10) per barrel. A revised forecast in May lowered that to 5,300 rubles ($68.90), yet the current market price remains under target. In Q1 2025, Urals crude averaged around 5,900 rubles ($76.70) per barrel.

Still, the country’s oil and gas revenues dropped by 10% year-on-year in Q1. By May, that shortfall widened dramatically, with total energy receipts falling by 34% to just 512.7 billion rubles ($6.66 billion) — the lowest since January 2023, according to the Finance Ministry.

The Kremlin now projects oil and gas tax revenues to reach 8.3 trillion rubles ($107.9 billion) this year — a reduction of 2.6 trillion rubles ($33.8 billion) from initial estimates. As a result, the 2025 budget deficit is expected to balloon to 3.8 trillion rubles ($49.4 billion), more than triple the original forecast and the largest since the Covid-19 pandemic.

Analysts warn that if Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz — a vital maritime chokepoint through which around 20% of the world’s oil flows — crude prices could skyrocket. The threat was issued after Israeli forces reportedly struck Iranian oil storage sites and infrastructure at the South Pars gas field, the country’s largest.

In a worst-case scenario, global oil prices could jump above \$130 per barrel, analysts at BCS cautioned. However, if the current exchange of strikes remains localized, the market impact may be limited to a \$5 per barrel increase above pre-conflict levels.

As of Monday afternoon, Brent crude futures were trading at \$73.65, down 6.3% from Friday’s peak of \$78.50.

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